Diplomacy Over Ukraine War Is About Bolstering Forces

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has called for a new peace summit in November, one open to participation by Russia. American and European officials privately wonder whether the Ukrainian and Russian militaries are so exhausted that they will pause fighting. And Western diplomats are discussing what kind of defense alliance their nations could promise Ukraine to help reach a settlement, officials say.

That kind of background chatter would seem to indicate a greater willingness by Ukraine and its allies to eventually engage in peace talks with Russia. But the most urgent diplomacy taking place now — and discussed with intensity this week in Kyiv, Washington and London — is about shaping the battlefield in Ukraine’s favor.

Ukrainian and Western officials say President Vladimir V. Putin still shows no signs of being willing to engage in peace talks in good faith. American and European officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy, have made clear over the last week that they are operating on the idea that Ukraine must consolidate and expand its gains on the battlefield in order to prod Mr. Putin toward the negotiating table — and to have meaningful leverage if talks start.

The discussions have been energized by the Ukrainian military’s occupation of Russian territory in Kursk, an assault that surprised both Russia and Ukraine’s partners after it began last month.

Ukraine has also intensified strikes against some Russian oil production facilities, hitting at the lifeblood of its enemy’s economy. And it has largely neutralized Russia’s Black Sea naval fleet.

Diplomatic discussions this week have focused on whether the United States, Britain and France should give Ukraine permission to use long-range missiles they have provided to strike deep into Russia. Right now, those countries only allow Ukraine to hit military targets just over the Russian border.

Britain and France are ready to permit longer strikes with their own weapons, but are waiting for President Biden to sign off, which he is poised to do, U.S. officials say. Mr. Biden remains hesitant to allow Ukraine to use American weapons for deep strikes, say the officials.

Mr. Biden and Keir Starmer, the British prime minister, plan to discuss the issue when they meet in Washington on Friday.

In Kyiv on Wednesday, Mr. Zelensky urged Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and David Lammy, the British foreign secretary, to loosen restrictions on the weapons. And Mr. Blinken said afterward at news conferences in both Kyiv and Warsaw, Poland, that the United States would “adjust and adapt” to conditions on the battlefield.

“We’re determined to ensure that they have what they need to succeed,” Mr. Blinken told reporters in Kyiv.

Battlefield success underpins any hopes for a negotiated settlement, said Tymofiy Mylovanov, the president of the Kyiv School of Economics and a former minister of economic development. It is precisely this kind of enhanced military capability, he said in an interview, that could bring Mr. Putin to the negotiating table and help sustain any truce that might result, especially since economic sanctions have failed to change his behavior.

To have leverage, he said, Ukraine needs to be able to quickly strike ports, airfields and oil facilities — and even threaten Moscow with missile attacks, if necessary.

“Putin doesn’t believe in any diplomacy; he’s just playing this game,” Mr. Mylovanov said. “But I think he also wants to see evidence. You know, bring the receipts. So, does Ukraine have the capabilities?”

Russia’s goals also depend on fulfilling battlefield needs, and its diplomatic discussions with partners revolve around that. That was underscored this week by the public accusation by Mr. Blinken and Mr. Lammy that Iran had begun shipping short-range ballistic missiles to Russia.

Mr. Blinken said in London that Russia would use the missiles to hit Ukraine “within weeks.” Though Iran and Russia have denied the existence of the shipments, what has been clear throughout the war is that Russia’s diplomacy has been focused on bolstering the Russian military, mainly with help from China, North Korea and Iran.

For years, Mr. Biden, fearing escalation toward a Russia-versus-NATO war, has acquiesced to many of Mr. Zelensky’s specific arms requests only after much negotiation and internal hand-wringing.

Critics of Mr. Biden’s gradual approach say that it ultimately undermines long-term diplomacy in a couple of ways: first, by contributing to an atmosphere of frustration and distrust between American and Ukrainian officials; and second, by not giving the Ukrainians the capabilities they need to accrue bargaining chips that would force Mr. Putin to negotiate.

In effect, they say, Mr. Biden and his aides have allowed Mr. Putin to shape the war in his favor by instilling in Washington a fear of crossing unknowable “red lines” in the Russian leader’s head.

“We were suddenly in a war where a lot of us are convinced that it’s normal for Russians to be in Ukraine, but it’s not normal for Ukrainians to be in Russia, which is a total innovation in the history of warfare,” said Timothy Snyder, a Yale historian who was in Ukraine this week as a representative for United 24, a Ukrainian state fund-raising group. “Nobody has ever claimed that before, let alone made their enemies believe it.”

“That is an incredible psychological success on the Russian side,” he said. “And there was no way for the Ukrainians to get us to think any way else except by proving it, which is what Kursk did, right?”

The Ukrainian push into Kursk has slowed as Russian forces counterattack, but if Kyiv can maintain its footprint there and maybe even seize more Russian territory, then it would have a stronger hand in any future peace talks.

William H. McRaven, a retired U.S. admiral who was a commander of special operations forces in the Obama administration, said that until Kursk, he had thought the best Ukraine could hope for was an armistice, security guarantees from allies, and money from frozen Russian assets for rebuilding. But the Kursk invasion surprised him, and it could give Mr. Zelensky a new card to play, he said.

“It boosts the morale in Ukraine right now,” he said last week at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin. “Morale is always important, but probably more important now than ever before.”

The shape of diplomacy will also pivot on the U.S. presidential election in November. Vice President Kamala Harris has vowed to continue the Biden administration’s support of Ukraine. Former president Donald J. Trump has led many Republican lawmakers in trying to block aid to Ukraine.

When asked by a debate moderator on Tuesday whether he wanted Ukraine to win, Mr. Trump avoided saying yes.

Mr. Trump has said he could end the war, without giving details. He might see halting military aid to Ukraine as one way of forcing Mr. Zelensky to the table with Mr. Putin — at a severe disadvantage.

In an interview with “The Shawn Ryan Show” that was posted on Thursday, Mr. Trump’s vice-presidential nominee, JD Vance, laid out his vision of a peace settlement for Ukraine. It aligns with Mr. Putin’s desires: Ukraine cedes territory that the Russian military occupies; the two nations remain separated by a demilitarized zone; and Ukraine promises not to join NATO or other “allied institutions.”

Mr. Zelensky has been more vocal recently on the possibility of an eventual settlement, but only on terms that he and most Ukrainian citizens can accept. Ukraine regards Mr. Putin’s stated conditions as a demand for surrender.

The Ukrainian president has said he will present Mr. Biden, Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump this month with a “victory plan” that would “influence Russia’s decision to end this war.” The strategy would involve putting psychological, political, diplomatic and — most immediately — military pressure on Moscow. Mr. Zelensky also plans to speak at an international peace summit in November, the second one this year.

This is a war of attrition, and ultimately the key to peace talks is pounding home to Mr. Putin that Ukraine and its allies are committed to and capable of waging a long-term military campaign, said Oleksandr Merezhko, chairman of the foreign affairs committee of Ukraine’s Parliament.

“When he sees that Ukrainian society is not divided, is determined to survive and hopefully to win, the West is determined to provide all the necessary equipment, that we can target Russian military targets deep into Russian territory, then he will start to think about something,” Mr. Merezhko said.

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